New Report Raises Spector of Sea Level Rise

A new report issued by US federal agencies, including the US EPA and the US Geological Survey, estimates that sea levels will rise higher than estimated as recently as 2007. The new report concludes that Florida and Louisiana are the states most vulnerable to sea-level rise, followed by North Carolina and Texas. The report presents three scenarios for sea-level rise by 2100: a rise of about 16 inches, of about 2 feet, and of about 3 feet. The report notes that if sea level should rise more than three feet during the 21st century (the worst-case scenario), "it is likely that some barrier islands in this region will cross a threshold" destabilizing and breaking apart.

Galveston is currently considering how to resurrect itself from the unimaginable destruction of Hurricane Ike (the worst natural disaster, in terms of damage, in Texas history and the third worst in U.S. history). The new Long-Term Community Recovery Committee (LTCRC) has integrated "sustainability" into its considerations, but I wonder if meeting the challenges of sea-level rise is among those issues being considered. To be blunt, how can it be avoided?

Concurrently, the USACE is considering several new development projects on the west end of Galveston Island (in truth, pre-Ike holdovers). The most recent (Marquette) has apparently ignored the impacts of Ike in its resubmission. Not only must the damage wrought by Ike be considered in any new development proposal and permit (how can we add insult to injury as the Bay is still healing?), but the USACE must also consider the impacts of the 2-to-3 foot rise of sea level within the foreseeable future. We can only hope that the new administration, with its clear commitment to new U.S. leadership in meeting the challenges of global warming, will extend this commitment to how its agencies, specifically the USACE, oversee the permitting of proposed coastal developments.

Ted Eubanks


For more information about the impacts of sea-level rise on Galveston Island, read the following:

Final Report - Abrupt Climate Change (US Geological Survey et. al)

EPA Global Warming Website

Living with Geohazards on Galveston Island: A Preliminary Report with Recommendations (Gibeaut, Anderson, and Dellapenna)

Coastal Geomorphic Responses to Sea Level Rise: Galveston Bay, Texas (Leatherman - PDF)

Modeling Future Changes in Barrier-Island Wetlands on Galveston Island, Texas (Gibeaut)

Hurricane Impact Map [prepared] for Galveston City Hall, Galveston, Texas (PC Weather Products, Inc.)

Coastal Erosion, Global Sea-Level Rise, and the Loss of Sand Dune Plant Habitats (Feagan, Sherman, and Grant)

How Will Climate Change Affect Transportation Decisions - The Gulf Coast Study (American Meteorological Association)

Look at Past Sea-Level Rise Points to Troubling Future (Anderson et.al)

Changes in Barrier Island Environments During Sea-Level Rise (PPT by Gibeaut)

National Assessment of Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise (USGS)

Global Warming Risks for Texas (Environmental Defense Fund)

Summary of Coastal Program Initiatives that Address Sea-Level Rise as a result of Gobal Climate Change [according to this report (Feb 2008] "at this time the Texas Coastal Program does not have sea-level-rise policies or initiatives specific to climate change."]

Florida Tool Box for Coastal Planning

OCEN 400 Environmental Sustainability PPT (beach alternatives)

Beach Preservation and Stratetic Retreat (West Carolina University)

Responding to Global Warming Along The US Coast (USEPA)

Local Population Impacts and Mitigation of Sea Level Rise

Ike Impacts on Galveston Bay Oyster Reefs

According to Texas authorities, at least 60% of the oyster reefs in Galveston Bay have been destroyed by the effects of Hurricane Ike. Reefs have been covered by debris and sediment churned up by the storm, and grass and other vegetation scoured from Bolivar now blanket reefs in East Bay. Similar impacts have been reported from coastal Louisiana. Combined, Texas and Louisiana produce 60% of the total domestic oyster supply in the U.S.

Certainly we are all optimistic that the oyster population will recover with time. But what if their situation is further compromised by expanded resort development on the west end of the island? For example, the proposed Marquette project proposes thousands of new homes on the west end, each with boats and their accouterments (canals, marinas, boat houses). Each boat in Galveston Bay will churn up additional sediments that are already suffocating these reefs. The USACE is now considering a request for a comprehensive environmental impact study concerning any additional development on Galveston's west end. To ignore Ike's impacts, I believe, would be unpardonable. Ike is the third most damaging hurricane in American history, and all involved in west end development, particularly the USACE, must recognize that fact.

See more in the Houston Chronicle. Also, read the testimony from the Galveston Bay Foundation at a recent legislative meeting in Galveston addressing these same issues.

Ted Eubanks